Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Gold Related Silliness

Guido reckons we should all start buying gold in order to hedge against the coming inflationary apocalypse, the whole idea seems a bit silly to me.

An above expected rise in inflation (from 1.5% to 1.9%) is not exactly grounds to start panicking. Japan despite employing quantitative easing for a very long period of time never experienced inflation, it's still struggling with deflation.

Even if we were to see inflation, how much would we see and is it really wise to hedge with gold? An unlikely nightmare scenario of two years at 20% inflation would give us around a 30% drop in the real value of the pound, is it really wise to hedge against a 30% loss in an asset with whose price has nearly tripled since 2005.

As far as I can see there's been a rush to gold going on for some time now, much of it brought on by fears of inflation. Just how long can this gold bubble be sustained? And what if the predicted inflation doesn't come? Personally, I really don't trust in the price of gold remaining as I has it is forever.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a little more inflation in the next few years, I think you'd be mad to want to guard against it by buying gold though.

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