Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Silliness at the Spectator

The Spectator amazes me, it seems that it doesn't matter how good the news is, the slightest connection with Gordon Brown's government will have them searching for a cloud to accompany the silver lining.

So, despite the surprisingly good news that unemployment has fallen, despite the fact that unemployment is usually a lagging indicator and normally starts dropping well into the recovery and despite the fact that unemployment is way below the 3 million predicted by the CBI last February, they still manage to put a negative spin on the good news.

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Who's Right?

Alex Smith reckons it's First Blood to Labour, Iain Dale reckons that the Tories Dominate the Political News Agenda. A more pertinent question might be How Long Will it be Before I'm Bored Rigid?

I see Tom Freeman is thinking along similar lines.

Monday, January 04, 2010

Starting the Year

First off a little statistic from the FT relating to the deficit and the FT's survey of economists:
Asked to name the three biggest risks to the economy, 37 of the 79 economists polled said the UK was threatened by a fiscal crisis that could derail any revival.
As far as I can tell this means that 42 of the FT's 79 did not list the fiscal deficit as one of their three biggest risks. This stikes me as signifigant because it means that 42 of their 79 economists thought their were three risks to the economy more signifigant than the deficit.

This is important because we have a political climate that is forming a consensus that suggests that cuts should are an absolutely and completely obvious priority and OMG HOW CAN TEH GORD NOT SEE ITZ!!!?!

So, let me stress for the new year: there is no real consensus around the need to make cuts.

Sunday, January 03, 2010

2010 Predictions

I've not done predictions before, but apparently they're all the rage on the blogosphere, so I'll have an attempt.

1) Charles Clarke will retain his Norwich South seat, his majority will very thin (around 1,000) and all political opponents (Green, Lib Dem and Tory) will be close behind.

2) John Cook will win Norwich North for Labour

3) We will see a hung parliament at the next election

4) The price of gold will remain roughly unchanged

5) Gilt yields will rise as quantitative easing is withdrawn but will remain at low levels

6) House prices will fall slightly as tougher regulations come into play

7) CPI Inflation will rise above the governments target, but signifigantly so

8) The economy will recover more quickly than expected

9) Talk about China's exchange rates will hot up, possibly leading to some serious trade related confrontations between the US and China.

10) I will be a better windsurfer